Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 12–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 687 DEN 11:20 → PSP 12:41 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2644 DEN 19:16 → PSP 20:34 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 687 United	DEN 11:20	PSP 12:41	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 305 SkyWest	DEN 15:46	PSP 17:12	13%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 4790 Southwest	DEN 20:36	PSP 21:52	18%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 2644 United Flight history →	DEN 19:16	PSP 20:34	19%	4%	0.6%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON