Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Dulles, leaving 15:40, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Richmond on time.

Nonstops that day


UA 1534 United Flight history →	DEN 17:50	RIC 23:25	15%	3%	0.5%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DEN 07:46 → ORD 11:24UA 1928	3h 06m Chicago	ORD 14:30 → RIC 17:49UA 3523 · flown by Republic	8h 03m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341	1h 46m Atlanta	ATL 12:30 → RIC 14:07DL 3152	6h 22m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	DEN 06:05 → DTW 10:54DL 1745	3h 31m Detroit	DTW 14:25 → RIC 16:07DL 3073	8h 02m	99%	92%
United Details →	DEN 06:00 → EWR 11:49UA 2345	3h 34m Newark	EWR 15:23 → RIC 17:06UA 3639 · flown by Republic	9h 06m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	DEN 07:15 → ATL 12:11DL 431	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 14:46 → RIC 16:23DL 1214	7h 08m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	DEN 06:00 → MSP 09:00DL 1129	1h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 10:00 → RIC 13:33DL 5063 · flown by Endeavor	5h 33m	97%	91%
American Details →	DEN 05:00 → DFW 08:05AA 2612	2h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:26 → RIC 14:35AA 1915	7h 35m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	DEN 14:10 → ATL 19:16DL 706	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → RIC 00:51 +1DL 1175	8h 41m	100%	90%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON