Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 804 DEN 09:09 → RNO 10:21 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4736 DEN 13:40 → RNO 15:02 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 804 Southwest	DEN 09:09	RNO 10:21	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 2167 United Flight history →	DEN 11:20	RNO 12:39	8%	3%	0.5%	87%
WN 4365 Southwest	DEN 16:05	RNO 17:18	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1604 United Flight history →	DEN 16:10	RNO 17:36	11%	4%	0.5%	85%
OO 4736 SkyWest	DEN 13:40	RNO 15:02	13%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON