Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 18 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 536 at 07:39 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 536 DEN 07:39 → SAN 09:08 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4022 DEN 20:52 → SAN 22:06 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 536 Southwest	DEN 07:39	SAN 09:08	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1657 Southwest	DEN 09:14	SAN 10:40	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2309 United Flight history →	DEN 07:43	SAN 09:05	10%	3%	0.6%	90%
AS 1424 Alaska	DEN 06:20	SAN 07:51	11%	2%	0.8%	no record
F9 2711 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 22:26	SAN 00:02	12%	4%	1.2%	81%
UA 1302 United Flight history →	DEN 13:30	SAN 14:55	14%	3%	0.6%	87%
F9 2817 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 14:21	SAN 16:02	14%	5%	0.8%	83%
AS 1422 Alaska	DEN 13:43	SAN 15:13	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1655 Southwest	DEN 12:02	SAN 13:30	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1940 United Flight history →	DEN 11:15	SAN 12:41	16%	4%	0.6%	82%
WN 1405 Southwest	DEN 13:34	SAN 15:01	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1658 Southwest	DEN 15:34	SAN 17:00	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1281 United Flight history →	DEN 15:55	SAN 17:20	18%	3%	0.5%	85%
AS 3029 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 20:06	SAN 21:40	18%	4%	0.9%	80%
UA 540 United Flight history →	DEN 19:20	SAN 20:46	19%	4%	0.6%	65%
UA 2395 United	DEN 20:53	SAN 22:19	20%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1659 Southwest	DEN 19:22	SAN 20:35	21%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4022 Southwest	DEN 20:52	SAN 22:06	22%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON