Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 1731 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 1731 DEN 06:30 → SEA 08:26 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AS 309 DEN 17:58 → SEA 19:33 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1731 Delta Flight history →	DEN 06:30	SEA 08:26	6%	1%	0.6%	91%
DL 1358 Delta Flight history →	DEN 13:03	SEA 15:05	14%	3%	0.6%	80%
UA 2651 United Flight history →	DEN 21:10	SEA 23:10	15%	4%	0.6%	72%
UA 2058 United	DEN 11:27	SEA 13:27	15%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 1253 United	DEN 09:51	SEA 11:51	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 888 Southwest	DEN 12:00	SEA 13:42	16%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 2013 United Flight history →	DEN 15:58	SEA 17:59	16%	4%	0.6%	80%
F9 1175 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 12:59	SEA 14:59	16%	4%	0.8%	81%
AS 682 Alaska Flight history →	DEN 12:19	SEA 14:02	20%	3%	0.6%	83%
DL 2543 Delta Flight history →	DEN 18:39	SEA 20:41	20%	3%	0.6%	57%
AS 535 Alaska Flight history →	DEN 16:36	SEA 18:38	21%	4%	0.6%	67%
AS 317 Alaska Flight history →	DEN 08:40	SEA 10:42	22%	3%	0.6%	84%
WN 4800 Southwest	DEN 21:03	SEA 22:44	22%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 2767 United	DEN 19:07	SEA 20:52	23%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 4462 Southwest	DEN 09:04	SEA 10:44	23%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4514 Southwest	DEN 16:19	SEA 18:00	23%	4%	0.5%	no record
AS 615 Alaska Flight history →	DEN 19:08	SEA 20:52	26%	4%	0.6%	58%
AS 309 Alaska	DEN 17:58	SEA 19:33	26%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON