Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2367 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 2367 DEN 05:15 → SFO 06:53 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 1389 DEN 19:34 → SFO 21:20 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2367 United Flight history →	DEN 05:15	SFO 06:53	2%	1%	0.6%	96%
UA 2265 United	DEN 06:01	SFO 07:48	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
OO 6097 SkyWest	DEN 07:09	SFO 08:57	12%	6%	1.1%	no record
UA 2391 United Flight history →	DEN 07:40	SFO 09:18	14%	5%	0.6%	71%
F9 3439 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 22:29	SFO 00:23	15%	7%	0.7%	70%
UA 1561 United Flight history →	DEN 11:21	SFO 13:04	15%	6%	0.5%	72%
WN 4691 Southwest	DEN 21:52	SFO 23:23	16%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 1812 United Flight history →	DEN 13:25	SFO 15:09	17%	7%	0.5%	76%
UA 2123 United Flight history →	DEN 21:10	SFO 22:56	17%	6%	0.6%	60%
WN 4760 Southwest	DEN 09:19	SFO 10:52	17%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 2633 United Flight history →	DEN 15:47	SFO 17:30	18%	8%	0.5%	73%
UA 1506 United Flight history →	DEN 09:43	SFO 11:25	20%	6%	0.5%	48%
WN 4785 Southwest	DEN 15:49	SFO 17:19	20%	6%	0.5%	no record
F9 1229 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 09:33	SFO 11:27	20%	7%	0.7%	66%
UA 1007 United Flight history →	DEN 17:54	SFO 19:40	21%	7%	0.5%	68%
UA 1389 United Flight history →	DEN 19:34	SFO 21:20	26%	7%	0.6%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON