Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 389 at 09:12 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 389 DEN 09:12 → SJC 10:45 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1679 DEN 20:55 → SJC 22:24 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 389 Southwest	DEN 09:12	SJC 10:45	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1256 United	DEN 11:35	SJC 13:20	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1883 United Flight history →	DEN 15:55	SJC 17:35	15%	6%	0.6%	72%
WN 459 Southwest	DEN 14:25	SJC 15:52	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 4744 Southwest	DEN 16:29	SJC 18:02	17%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2745 United Flight history →	DEN 19:30	SJC 21:09	18%	5%	0.6%	76%
WN 1679 Southwest	DEN 20:55	SJC 22:24	20%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON