Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 25 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 2544 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 2544 DEN 05:40 → SLC 07:13 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 2769 DEN 19:23 → SLC 20:56 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2544 Delta Flight history →	DEN 05:40	SLC 07:13	3%	1%	0.5%	87%
DL 1581 Delta Flight history →	DEN 07:05	SLC 08:36	5%	2%	0.5%	92%
DL 9960 Delta	DEN 07:02	SLC 08:32	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 497 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	SLC 09:37	6%	2%	0.5%	90%
WN 2580 Southwest	DEN 10:29	SLC 11:57	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
F9 3219 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 08:57	SLC 10:38	7%	3%	0.6%	83%
WN 1680 Southwest	DEN 09:02	SLC 10:28	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 1553 Delta Flight history →	DEN 12:45	SLC 14:20	8%	3%	0.5%	84%
DL 1317 Delta	DEN 10:44	SLC 12:15	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 5646 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 21:05	SLC 22:44	10%	4%	0.5%	80%
WN 653 Southwest	DEN 12:32	SLC 13:58	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
F9 3861 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 13:38	SLC 15:21	11%	4%	0.6%	96%
OO 5741 SkyWest	DEN 15:49	SLC 17:24	11%	5%	0.5%	no record
OO 4787 SkyWest	DEN 16:37	SLC 18:30	12%	4%	0.5%	no record
OO 449 SkyWest	DEN 17:57	SLC 19:33	12%	4%	0.5%	no record
OO 5191 SkyWest	DEN 17:23	SLC 18:56	13%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 1840 United Flight history →	DEN 13:40	SLC 15:13	13%	4%	0.5%	84%
UA 1963 United Flight history →	DEN 11:40	SLC 13:13	13%	3%	0.5%	80%
F9 4251 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 22:13	SLC 23:44	14%	4%	0.6%	71%
WN 3815 Southwest	DEN 16:11	SLC 17:39	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
F9 9418 Frontier	DEN 16:10	SLC 17:47	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 1623 Delta Flight history →	DEN 18:07	SLC 19:36	15%	3%	0.5%	84%
WN 2135 Southwest	DEN 19:37	SLC 21:00	17%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 4734 Southwest	DEN 20:51	SLC 22:16	19%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 2769 United Flight history →	DEN 19:23	SLC 20:56	19%	4%	0.5%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON