Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2149 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–16%.

Safest bet that day UA 2149 DEN 08:00 → SMF 09:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 1687 DEN 19:42 → SMF 21:06 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2149 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	SMF 09:35	5%	2%	0.5%	94%
WN 4490 Southwest	DEN 09:04	SMF 10:30	6%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 743 Southwest	DEN 10:34	SMF 11:59	6%	2%	0.4%	no record
UA 2673 United	DEN 11:48	SMF 13:28	7%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 662 United Flight history →	DEN 13:35	SMF 15:11	8%	3%	0.5%	83%
WN 3421 Southwest	DEN 12:44	SMF 14:09	11%	2%	0.4%	no record
UA 1208 United Flight history →	DEN 16:03	SMF 17:41	11%	3%	0.5%	82%
F9 3665 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 09:01	SMF 10:35	11%	3%	0.6%	82%
WN 4825 Southwest	DEN 14:51	SMF 16:17	13%	3%	0.4%	no record
UA 2132 United Flight history →	DEN 19:37	SMF 21:12	13%	3%	0.5%	74%
UA 1602 United Flight history →	DEN 20:28	SMF 22:07	13%	3%	0.5%	77%
WN 3595 Southwest	DEN 20:38	SMF 22:03	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1687 Southwest	DEN 19:42	SMF 21:06	16%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON