Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2666 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 2666 DEN 07:40 → SNA 09:07 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 296 DEN 20:00 → SNA 21:14 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2666 United Flight history →	DEN 07:40	SNA 09:07	8%	2%	0.6%	95%
WN 4771 Southwest	DEN 09:02	SNA 10:24	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1707 United Flight history →	DEN 13:25	SNA 14:57	12%	5%	0.6%	86%
UA 1320 United Flight history →	DEN 11:20	SNA 12:51	13%	4%	0.6%	88%
WN 1691 Southwest	DEN 12:49	SNA 14:10	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 725 United Flight history →	DEN 20:32	SNA 22:01	15%	3%	0.6%	80%
UA 1497 United	DEN 16:07	SNA 17:40	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 1692 Southwest	DEN 17:12	SNA 18:33	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1704 United Flight history →	DEN 19:15	SNA 20:44	16%	5%	0.6%	75%
WN 296 Southwest	DEN 20:00	SNA 21:14	18%	2%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON