Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1694 at 06:34 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 1694 DEN 06:34 → STL 09:37 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1422 DEN 17:34 → STL 20:43 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1694 Southwest	DEN 06:34	STL 09:37	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2035 Southwest	DEN 08:39	STL 11:41	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 652 United Flight history →	DEN 09:35	STL 12:42	14%	3%	0.5%	84%
UA 1639 United Flight history →	DEN 13:25	STL 16:33	16%	3%	0.5%	87%
WN 1695 Southwest	DEN 11:12	STL 14:15	16%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 241 Southwest	DEN 15:46	STL 18:48	17%	3%	0.5%	no record
F9 3302 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:10	STL 19:23	19%	5%	0.7%	85%
OO 4733 SkyWest	DEN 20:28	STL 23:41	20%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 237 Southwest	DEN 17:57	STL 20:58	20%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1422 United Flight history →	DEN 17:34	STL 20:43	23%	5%	0.5%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON