Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 194 at 10:57 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 194 DEN 10:57 → TUL 13:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1937 DEN 17:37 → TUL 20:27 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 194 Southwest	DEN 10:57	TUL 13:35	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 5315 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 10:04	TUL 12:59	8%	3%	0.5%	88%
UA 4712 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 20:55	TUL 23:47	9%	4%	0.5%	81%
UA 5311 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:40	TUL 16:29	9%	5%	0.5%	90%
OO 568 SkyWest	DEN 16:29	TUL 19:20	13%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 3112 Southwest	DEN 18:47	TUL 21:26	16%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 1937 United Flight history →	DEN 17:37	TUL 20:27	18%	5%	0.6%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON