Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: OO 4805 at 20:49 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–19%.

Safest bet that day OO 4805 DEN 20:49 → XNA 23:54 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1351 DEN 17:50 → XNA 20:48 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 4805 SkyWest	DEN 20:49	XNA 23:54	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 5267 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:50	XNA 12:47	11%	4%	0.5%	87%
UA 5641 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:30	XNA 16:25	11%	6%	0.6%	89%
UA 1351 United Flight history →	DEN 17:50	XNA 20:48	19%	5%	0.5%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON