Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 3535 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 3535 DFW 09:00 → ABQ 09:59 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 2698 DFW 17:33 → ABQ 18:30 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3535 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:00	ABQ 09:59	9%	2%	0.9%	80%
AA 3586 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 10:55	ABQ 11:56	10%	2%	0.9%	83%
AA 3777 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 13:08	ABQ 13:52	13%	3%	0.9%	76%
AA 3053 American	DFW 14:29	ABQ 15:27	21%	9%	1.1%	no record
AA 9 American Flight history →	DFW 16:05	ABQ 17:04	23%	8%	1.2%	64%
AA 1321 American Flight history →	DFW 21:26	ABQ 22:28	27%	7%	1.4%	31%
AA 2698 American Flight history →	DFW 17:33	ABQ 18:30	27%	9%	1.5%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON