Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 3920 at 08:26 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 3920 DFW 08:26 → AMA 09:49 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2265 DFW 21:21 → AMA 22:45 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3920 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 08:26	AMA 09:49	8%	3%	1.2%	91%
MQ 3337 Envoy	DFW 10:57	AMA 12:17	10%	3%	1.2%	no record
AA 3383 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 13:22	AMA 14:47	11%	4%	1.2%	86%
AA 3613 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 14:35	AMA 16:00	12%	4%	1.2%	84%
AA 3789 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:17	AMA 18:41	13%	4%	1.4%	80%
AA 3990 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 18:46	AMA 20:10	16%	5%	1.6%	67%
AA 3607 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 19:59	AMA 21:23	17%	5%	1.8%	73%
AA 9790 American	DFW 21:18	AMA 22:56	24%	9%	1.8%	no record
AA 2265 American	DFW 21:21	AMA 22:45	27%	10%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON