tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Seattle, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 399 American Flight history → DFW 15:17 ANC 19:28 16% 5% 0.6% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 3 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DFW 10:35 → ORD 13:05UA 1634 3h 05m Chicago ORD 16:10 → ANC 19:54UA 841 12h 19m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → DFW 06:30 → SEA 08:46DL 804 1h 49m Seattle SEA 10:35 → ANC 13:17DL 922 9h 47m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → DFW 11:32 → ORD 14:03AA 1285 2h 54m Chicago ORD 16:57 → ANC 21:04AA 375 12h 32m 98% 78%
AlaskaDetails → DFW 13:02 → SEA 15:23AS 415 2h 29m Seattle SEA 17:52 → ANC 20:40AS 85 10h 38m 98% 76%
AlaskaDetails → DFW 09:00 → SEA 11:20AS 365 3h 14m Seattle SEA 14:34 → ANC 17:21AS 1436 11h 21m 99% 75%
AlaskaDetails → DFW 18:03 → SEA 20:24AS 322 1h 39m Seattle SEA 22:03 → ANC 00:50 +1AS 1490 9h 47m 96% 73%
UnitedDetails → DFW 16:50 → DEN 18:20UA 1303 48m Denver DEN 19:08 → ANC 22:57UA 280 9h 07m 83% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → DFW 09:00 → SEA 11:20AS 365 51m Seattle SEA 12:11 → ANC 14:58AS 1434 8h 58m 71% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON