Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 401 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 401 DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 2496 DFW 13:23 → ATL 16:52 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 401 Delta Flight history →	DFW 05:20	ATL 08:34	4%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 893 Delta Flight history →	DFW 06:45	ATL 09:59	5%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 839 Delta Flight history →	DFW 10:06	ATL 13:25	7%	2%	0.7%	83%
DL 961 Delta Flight history →	DFW 12:17	ATL 15:35	10%	3%	0.7%	86%
AA 1276 American Flight history →	DFW 08:03	ATL 11:23	12%	4%	0.7%	89%
DL 414 Delta Flight history →	DFW 13:50	ATL 17:14	12%	4%	0.7%	80%
DL 1827 Delta	DFW 20:17	ATL 23:25	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 921 Delta Flight history →	DFW 18:11	ATL 21:24	14%	4%	0.8%	79%
AA 1008 American Flight history →	DFW 12:02	ATL 15:31	16%	5%	0.8%	85%
AA 3104 American Flight history →	DFW 11:03	ATL 14:21	17%	5%	0.7%	82%
AA 2398 American	DFW 13:27	ATL 16:48	20%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 2403 American Flight history →	DFW 17:07	ATL 20:35	23%	7%	0.8%	66%
F9 3022 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 19:57	ATL 23:26	25%	9%	0.8%	76%
AA 3212 American Flight history →	DFW 17:32	ATL 20:54	25%	8%	0.8%	56%
F9 2496 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 13:23	ATL 16:52	27%	10%	0.8%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON