tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AA 4188 at 20:07, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 4188 American flown by Envoy Flight history → DFW 20:07 ATW 22:41 11% 3% 0.8% 74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Appleton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DFW 13:24 → DTW 17:10DL 735 3h 59m Detroit DTW 21:09 → ATW 21:37DL 4159 · flown by SkyWest 8h 13m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04DL 2183 56m Detroit DTW 10:00 → ATW 10:29DL 4440 · flown by SkyWest 5h 09m 95% 82%
AmericanDetails → DFW 16:46 → ORD 19:35AA 1290 3h 07m Chicago ORD 22:42 → ATW 23:47AA 3774 · flown by Envoy 7h 01m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → DFW 11:19 → DTW 15:02DL 2746 2h 22m Detroit DTW 17:24 → ATW 17:50DL 4166 · flown by SkyWest 6h 31m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → DFW 13:44 → DEN 14:55UA 248 2h 44m Denver DEN 17:39 → ATW 20:55UA 2089 7h 11m 96% 77%
UnitedDetails → DFW 07:08 → ORD 09:50UA 1695 2h 55m Chicago ORD 12:45 → ATW 14:05UA 4475 · flown by GoJet 6h 57m 99% 70%
UnitedDetails → DFW 17:47 → ORD 20:30UA 1564 1h 30m Chicago ORD 22:00 → ATW 23:23UA 4495 · flown by GoJet 5h 36m 84% 67%
UnitedDetails → DFW 12:00 → ORD 14:42UA 1401 3h 31m Chicago ORD 18:13 → ATW 19:27UA 5987 · flown by SkyWest 7h 27m 98% 61%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DFW 10:35 → ORD 13:05UA 1634 50m Chicago ORD 13:55 → ATW 15:09UA 4479 · flown by GoJet 4h 34m 72% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON