Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1643 at 07:14 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 1643 DFW 07:14 → AUS 08:24 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 2707 DFW 20:33 → AUS 21:37 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1643 American Flight history →	DFW 07:14	AUS 08:24	9%	3%	0.8%	87%
AA 794 American Flight history →	DFW 08:48	AUS 09:59	11%	3%	0.8%	80%
AA 3722 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:24	AUS 18:32	11%	3%	1.0%	61%
AA 3054 American Flight history →	DFW 09:43	AUS 10:57	12%	4%	0.8%	74%
AA 1852 American	DFW 12:30	AUS 13:41	15%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 1070 American	DFW 10:49	AUS 11:50	15%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 1073 American	DFW 13:24	AUS 14:37	18%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 1146 American	DFW 15:49	AUS 17:00	20%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 2103 American	DFW 14:29	AUS 15:39	20%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 576 American Flight history →	DFW 18:58	AUS 20:08	22%	7%	1.2%	65%
AA 1588 American Flight history →	DFW 17:58	AUS 19:08	22%	7%	0.8%	57%
AA 972 American Flight history →	DFW 21:27	AUS 22:38	22%	7%	1.2%	61%
AA 2707 American Flight history →	DFW 20:33	AUS 21:37	23%	7%	1.0%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON