Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day MQ 3361 DFW 07:10 → BHM 09:14 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5610 DFW 14:38 → BHM 16:36 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3361 Envoy	DFW 07:10	BHM 09:14	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3399 Envoy	DFW 21:29	BHM 23:28	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 3433 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 20:33	BHM 22:27	6%	2%	0.6%	75%
AA 3884 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 13:01	BHM 14:57	6%	2%	0.6%	81%
AA 5530 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 09:37	BHM 11:35	9%	5%	0.7%	61%
AA 5610 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 14:38	BHM 16:36	11%	5%	0.7%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON