Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 05:45, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Billings on time.

Nonstops that day


AA 4095 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 10:50	BIL 13:04	6%	1%	0.6%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Billings on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Billings is 1 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 12:30 → SLC 14:20DL 2798	2h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 16:25 → BIL 17:52DL 3828 · flown by SkyWest	6h 22m	99%	94%
American Details →	DFW 05:47 → ORD 08:15AA 2999	1h 43m Chicago	ORD 09:58 → BIL 12:18AA 3498 · flown by Envoy	7h 31m	99%	93%
United Details →	DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 773	1h 02m Denver	DEN 07:55 → BIL 09:36UA 4762 · flown by SkyWest	4h 51m	97%	90%
United Details →	DFW 11:35 → DEN 12:45UA 2049	2h 50m Denver	DEN 15:35 → BIL 17:19UA 5498 · flown by SkyWest	6h 44m	98%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON