Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1103 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 1103 DFW 07:20 → BNA 09:23 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 2244 DFW 15:19 → BNA 17:21 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1103 American Flight history →	DFW 07:20	BNA 09:23	10%	3%	0.9%	82%
AA 1396 American Flight history →	DFW 10:02	BNA 12:06	12%	4%	0.8%	82%
AA 1084 American	DFW 12:53	BNA 14:59	18%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 1500 American Flight history →	DFW 21:28	BNA 23:29	20%	6%	0.8%	54%
AA 3230 American Flight history →	DFW 21:15	BNA 23:16	20%	6%	0.8%	57%
AA 1181 American	DFW 14:09	BNA 16:16	21%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 2979 American Flight history →	DFW 20:18	BNA 22:19	22%	7%	0.8%	57%
AA 1076 American Flight history →	DFW 18:18	BNA 20:17	22%	8%	0.8%	61%
AA 2244 American Flight history →	DFW 15:19	BNA 17:21	23%	8%	0.8%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON