Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 2351 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–37%.

Safest bet that day DL 2351 DFW 07:15 → BOS 12:08 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 1401 DFW 13:48 → BOS 18:18 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2351 Delta Flight history →	DFW 07:15	BOS 12:08	10%	3%	0.8%	88%
AA 1206 American Flight history →	DFW 08:50	BOS 13:37	18%	4%	1.0%	82%
AA 3102 American Flight history →	DFW 10:21	BOS 15:34	27%	10%	1.1%	67%
DL 760 Delta Flight history →	DFW 11:20	BOS 16:14	27%	9%	1.0%	68%
DL 1809 Delta	DFW 17:11	BOS 22:11	30%	14%	1.1%	no record
AA 1268 American	DFW 18:33	BOS 23:32	33%	11%	1.2%	no record
AA 2567 American Flight history →	DFW 17:29	BOS 22:34	36%	16%	1.2%	56%
AA 410 American	DFW 16:33	BOS 21:39	37%	19%	1.2%	no record
AA 2306 American Flight history →	DFW 14:44	BOS 19:44	44%	23%	1.1%	55%
AA 1401 American Flight history →	DFW 13:48	BOS 18:18	48%	22%	2.6%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON