Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 1724 American Flight history →	DFW 12:00	BUF 16:11	15%	6%	0.7%	76%
AA 574 American Flight history →	DFW 18:45	BUF 22:50	23%	8%	0.8%	58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DFW 10:47 → LGA 15:30AA 2922	3h 59m New York	LGA 19:29 → BUF 21:07AA 4521 · flown by Republic	9h 20m	100%	90%
American Details →	DFW 05:02 → CLT 08:37AA 1091	1h 37m Charlotte	CLT 10:14 → BUF 12:06AA 1203	6h 04m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 16:33 → BUF 18:41DL 2050	7h 35m	100%	88%
American Details →	DFW 07:40 → LGA 12:13AA 1609	3h 31m New York	LGA 15:44 → BUF 17:08AA 843	8h 28m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	DFW 11:16 → MSP 13:44DL 2972	1h 38m Minneapolis	MSP 15:22 → BUF 18:24DL 1749	6h 08m	97%	86%
American Details →	DFW 05:02 → DCA 09:03AA 1618	55m Washington	DCA 09:58 → BUF 11:38AA 4647 · flown by Republic	5h 36m	93%	86%
American Details →	DFW 08:49 → CLT 12:29AA 317	1h 31m Charlotte	CLT 14:00 → BUF 15:54AA 2442	6h 05m	95%	84%
United Details →	DFW 12:00 → ORD 14:42UA 1401	3h 43m Chicago	ORD 18:25 → BUF 20:54UA 1335	7h 54m	99%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON