Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 947 American Flight history →	DFW 13:23	BZN 15:40	12%	4%	0.7%	56%
AA 1774 American Flight history →	DFW 20:09	BZN 22:11	17%	5%	0.7%	56%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 12:30 → SLC 14:20DL 2798	3h 00m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest	7h 14m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 11:09 → BZN 13:11DL 406	8h 51m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	DFW 06:55 → MSP 09:23DL 1276	1h 34m Minneapolis	MSP 10:57 → BZN 12:30DL 2946	6h 35m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	DFW 06:30 → SEA 08:46DL 804	2h 54m Seattle	SEA 11:40 → BZN 14:35DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest	9h 05m	99%	86%
American Details →	DFW 05:47 → ORD 08:15AA 2999	2h 03m Chicago	ORD 10:18 → BZN 12:57AA 1080	8h 10m	99%	83%
United Details →	DFW 07:29 → SFO 09:29UA 790	2h 31m San Francisco	SFO 12:00 → BZN 15:21UA 562	8h 52m	98%	80%
United Details →	DFW 12:00 → ORD 14:42UA 1401	2h 19m Chicago	ORD 17:01 → BZN 19:21UA 1920	8h 21m	95%	74%
United Details →	DFW 11:35 → DEN 12:45UA 2049	54m Denver	DEN 13:39 → BZN 15:27UA 513	4h 52m	81%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	DFW 09:00 → SEA 11:20AS 365	49m Seattle	SEA 12:09 → BZN 14:47AS 277	6h 47m	72%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON