Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day MQ 3676 DFW 10:05 → CID 12:24 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3798 DFW 18:29 → CID 20:38 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3676 Envoy	DFW 10:05	CID 12:24	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 4318 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 16:07	CID 18:21	12%	2%	0.7%	90%
AA 4235 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 21:01	CID 23:11	12%	2%	0.6%	87%
AA 3798 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 18:29	CID 20:38	13%	2%	0.7%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON