Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1091 at 05:02 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 1091 DFW 05:02 → CLT 08:37 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 3002 DFW 18:42 → CLT 22:23 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1091 American Flight history →	DFW 05:02	CLT 08:37	6%	2%	0.8%	96%
AA 2168 American	DFW 08:17	CLT 11:59	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 317 American Flight history →	DFW 08:49	CLT 12:29	12%	2%	0.7%	86%
AA 2493 American	DFW 10:02	CLT 13:49	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
F9 3110 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 08:46	CLT 12:33	14%	4%	1.0%	78%
AA 1696 American Flight history →	DFW 11:55	CLT 15:36	15%	4%	0.8%	72%
AA 3227 American	DFW 14:44	CLT 18:37	18%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 1703 American Flight history →	DFW 17:54	CLT 21:44	18%	5%	0.8%	67%
AA 460 American	DFW 20:46	CLT 00:32	19%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 2013 American	DFW 16:03	CLT 19:47	19%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 3002 American	DFW 18:42	CLT 22:23	19%	5%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON