Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: F9 4280 at 06:31 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–22%.

Safest bet that day F9 4280 DFW 06:31 → CVG 10:07 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest AA 799 DFW 18:09 → CVG 21:29 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 4280 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 06:31	CVG 10:07	9%	4%	0.8%	78%
AA 2610 American Flight history →	DFW 07:32	CVG 10:59	9%	3%	0.6%	87%
AA 3305 American Flight history →	DFW 10:58	CVG 14:27	11%	3%	0.6%	81%
AA 2919 American Flight history →	DFW 14:52	CVG 18:18	21%	5%	0.6%	57%
AA 799 American Flight history →	DFW 18:09	CVG 21:29	22%	5%	0.7%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON