Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1618 at 05:02 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 1618 DFW 05:02 → DCA 09:03 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 2752 DFW 18:52 → DCA 22:59 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1618 American Flight history →	DFW 05:02	DCA 09:03	7%	2%	0.9%	88%
AA 1623 American Flight history →	DFW 07:02	DCA 10:59	9%	3%	0.8%	86%
AA 1177 American Flight history →	DFW 08:40	DCA 12:42	12%	4%	0.8%	85%
AA 2399 American	DFW 09:38	DCA 13:34	13%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 1414 American Flight history →	DFW 11:54	DCA 15:59	16%	6%	0.9%	70%
AA 2077 American Flight history →	DFW 20:00	DCA 23:59	19%	6%	1.2%	64%
AA 472 American Flight history →	DFW 19:01	DCA 23:03	19%	6%	1.0%	65%
AA 2520 American	DFW 14:55	DCA 19:15	20%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 2752 American Flight history →	DFW 18:52	DCA 22:59	21%	7%	1.0%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON