Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: OH 5560 at 07:11 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–22%.

Safest bet that day OH 5560 DFW 07:11 → DSM 09:18 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1664 DFW 13:20 → DSM 15:23 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5560 PSA	DFW 07:11	DSM 09:18	12%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 3930 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 15:56	DSM 18:08	13%	4%	0.8%	94%
AA 1371 American Flight history →	DFW 22:05	DSM 23:58	21%	8%	1.1%	54%
AA 1664 American Flight history →	DFW 13:20	DSM 15:23	22%	7%	1.0%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON