Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2215 at 05:48 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 2215 DFW 05:48 → EWR 10:18 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2861 DFW 14:30 → EWR 19:10 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2215 United	DFW 05:48	EWR 10:18	5%	3%	1.0%	no record
UA 1847 United Flight history →	DFW 07:21	EWR 11:59	8%	3%	1.0%	89%
AA 1796 American Flight history →	DFW 07:03	EWR 11:48	12%	4%	1.2%	81%
F9 2472 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:50	EWR 12:31	15%	6%	1.2%	83%
UA 1268 United	DFW 09:13	EWR 13:45	17%	6%	0.9%	no record
UA 1574 United Flight history →	DFW 13:00	EWR 17:37	29%	11%	1.1%	78%
UA 2461 United	DFW 16:58	EWR 21:35	29%	11%	0.9%	no record
AA 813 American Flight history →	DFW 11:58	EWR 16:15	32%	11%	1.3%	69%
AA 618 American Flight history →	DFW 18:08	EWR 22:46	33%	10%	1.6%	56%
AA 2861 American Flight history →	DFW 14:30	EWR 19:10	37%	14%	1.4%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON