Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 13–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2511 DFW 07:16 → FLL 11:11 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3318 DFW 13:12 → FLL 17:14 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2511 American	DFW 07:16	FLL 11:11	13%	3%	1.2%	no record
B6 2282 JetBlue Flight history →	DFW 07:00	FLL 10:57	14%	5%	1.1%	83%
AA 1390 American Flight history →	DFW 10:30	FLL 14:39	14%	4%	1.0%	67%
AA 1373 American Flight history →	DFW 12:46	FLL 16:54	16%	4%	0.9%	77%
AA 3220 American	DFW 11:39	FLL 15:36	16%	4%	1.0%	no record
B6 1882 JetBlue Flight history →	DFW 16:10	FLL 20:10	19%	8%	1.0%	25%
AA 1847 American Flight history →	DFW 21:05	FLL 01:14	19%	6%	1.3%	62%
F9 3318 Frontier	DFW 13:12	FLL 17:14	22%	7%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON