Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: AA 3886 at 10:08 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day


AA 3886 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 10:08	GSO 13:56	6%	1%	0.7%	91%
AA 2242 American Flight history →	DFW 13:57	GSO 17:45	23%	5%	0.7%	61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Greensboro on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Greensboro is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → GSO 11:34DL 3052	5h 14m	99%	92%
American Details →	DFW 04:45 → ORD 07:07AA 1938	3h 40m Chicago	ORD 10:47 → GSO 13:56AA 4144 · flown by Envoy	8h 11m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	DFW 06:45 → ATL 09:59DL 893	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 12:49 → GSO 14:04DL 3060	6h 19m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	DFW 13:24 → DTW 17:10DL 735	3h 56m Detroit	DTW 21:06 → GSO 22:47DL 5407 · flown by Endeavor	8h 23m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 16:30 → GSO 17:50DL 3050	6h 44m	100%	87%
American Details →	DFW 07:40 → LGA 12:13AA 1609	3h 12m New York	LGA 15:25 → GSO 17:25AA 4574 · flown by Republic	8h 45m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	DFW 13:50 → ATL 17:14DL 414	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 19:36 → GSO 20:56DL 1617	6h 06m	98%	86%
American Details →	DFW 13:10 → ORD 15:51AA 2988	2h 49m Chicago	ORD 18:40 → GSO 21:47AA 3648 · flown by Envoy	7h 37m	97%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON