Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 26–33% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 115 DFW 09:15 → HNL 12:11 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest QF 7554 DFW 15:06 → HNL 17:51 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 115 American Flight history →	DFW 09:15	HNL 12:11	26%	7%	0.9%	71%
AA 5 American Flight history →	DFW 11:30	HNL 14:26	28%	10%	0.9%	68%
QF 7554 Qantas	DFW 15:06	HNL 17:51	33%	9%	1.2%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DFW 08:12 → SLC 09:59DL 1291	1h 46m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316	11h 07m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	DFW 16:00 → LAX 17:19DL 521	1h 18m Los Angeles	LAX 18:37 → HNL 21:22DL 443	10h 22m	94%	76%
United Details →	DFW 07:00 → IAH 08:26UA 2670	1h 44m Houston	IAH 10:10 → HNL 13:26UA 253	11h 26m	99%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON