Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 9–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4036 DFW 07:33 → HOU 08:53 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest MQ 4222 DFW 16:50 → HOU 18:19 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4036 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:33	HOU 08:53	9%	2%	0.9%	88%
MQ 4015 Envoy	DFW 14:39	HOU 16:03	12%	2%	0.9%	no record
OO 6382 SkyWest	DFW 09:57	HOU 11:22	13%	5%	0.8%	no record
OO 6186 SkyWest	DFW 12:21	HOU 13:46	13%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 3391 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 18:40	HOU 20:08	14%	3%	1.2%	68%
MQ 4222 Envoy	DFW 16:50	HOU 18:19	14%	3%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON