Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 10–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3476 DFW 07:22 → HSV 09:29 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest OH 5380 DFW 21:35 → HSV 23:35 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3476 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:22	HSV 09:29	10%	2%	1.0%	94%
AA 3967 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 14:11	HSV 16:15	15%	3%	1.1%	88%
AA 4278 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 21:30	HSV 23:26	15%	3%	1.1%	70%
OO 6302 SkyWest	DFW 09:40	HSV 11:38	16%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 5383 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 11:54	HSV 13:55	19%	5%	1.5%	75%
OH 5380 PSA	DFW 21:35	HSV 23:35	20%	5%	2.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON