Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 15–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 524 DFW 10:19 → IAD 14:31 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 3208 DFW 11:31 → IAD 15:47 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 524 American Flight history →	DFW 10:19	IAD 14:31	15%	4%	0.8%	90%
UA 358 United Flight history →	DFW 12:25	IAD 16:29	17%	4%	0.6%	86%
UA 1240 United Flight history →	DFW 17:15	IAD 21:24	20%	6%	0.6%	79%
AA 2254 American	DFW 16:09	IAD 20:16	20%	6%	0.8%	no record
F9 3208 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 11:31	IAD 15:47	21%	6%	0.9%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON