Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2260 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 2260 DFW 05:10 → IAH 06:22 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 1392 DFW 18:36 → IAH 19:54 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2260 United Flight history →	DFW 05:10	IAH 06:22	5%	2%	0.6%	95%
UA 2670 United Flight history →	DFW 07:00	IAH 08:26	9%	3%	0.6%	72%
AA 3829 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 10:11	IAH 11:26	11%	2%	0.8%	97%
UA 1586 United Flight history →	DFW 09:46	IAH 11:03	11%	3%	0.6%	82%
AA 3598 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 06:54	IAH 08:06	13%	2%	0.8%	69%
UA 2114 United Flight history →	DFW 19:34	IAH 20:55	15%	5%	0.7%	84%
AA 1407 American Flight history →	DFW 08:22	IAH 09:38	16%	4%	0.7%	77%
AA 1397 American	DFW 12:07	IAH 13:28	18%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 1609 United Flight history →	DFW 17:24	IAH 18:46	18%	7%	0.6%	60%
UA 2682 United Flight history →	DFW 16:01	IAH 17:18	20%	5%	0.6%	67%
OH 5576 PSA	DFW 14:02	IAH 15:18	21%	6%	0.8%	no record
OH 5299 PSA	DFW 17:01	IAH 18:17	23%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 1386 American	DFW 18:03	IAH 19:24	25%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 2209 American Flight history →	DFW 21:10	IAH 22:24	27%	7%	0.9%	48%
AA 1392 American Flight history →	DFW 18:36	IAH 19:54	28%	8%	1.1%	50%
UA 3985 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	DFW 14:15	IAH 15:37	29%	17%	0.0%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON