Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: MQ 4032 at 07:53 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–14%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4032 DFW 07:53 → ICT 09:24 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2304 DFW 14:27 → ICT 16:02 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4032 Envoy	DFW 07:53	ICT 09:24	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 4142 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:31	ICT 10:55	6%	2%	0.7%	83%
OO 6218 SkyWest	DFW 20:49	ICT 22:23	10%	4%	0.6%	no record
OH 5372 PSA	DFW 12:10	ICT 13:40	11%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 3691 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 18:00	ICT 19:23	13%	3%	0.7%	67%
AA 5086 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 21:25	ICT 22:55	14%	5%	0.9%	65%
AA 2304 American	DFW 14:27	ICT 16:02	18%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON