tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
MQ 4016 Envoy DFW 12:10 ILM 16:14 7% 2% 0.6% no record
MQ 3355 Envoy DFW 19:10 ILM 23:16 9% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wilmington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Wilmington is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → ILM 13:43DL 731 7h 23m 100% 94%
AmericanDetails → DFW 05:02 → CLT 08:37AA 1091 3h 33m Charlotte CLT 12:10 → ILM 13:20AA 5416 · flown by PSA 7h 18m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 16:28 → ILM 18:03DL 1292 6h 57m 100% 91%
AmericanDetails → DFW 04:45 → ORD 07:07AA 1938 1h 18m Chicago ORD 08:25 → ILM 11:43AA 3970 · flown by Envoy 5h 58m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → DFW 07:00 → LGA 11:29DL 551 3h 16m New York LGA 14:45 → ILM 16:30DL 5212 · flown by Endeavor 8h 30m 98% 89%
AmericanDetails → DFW 07:02 → DCA 10:59AA 1623 2h 31m Washington DCA 13:30 → ILM 15:06AA 5313 · flown by PSA 7h 04m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → DFW 08:49 → CLT 12:29AA 317 1h 20m Charlotte CLT 13:49 → ILM 14:59AA 2413 5h 10m 94% 84%
AmericanDetails → DFW 12:28 → LGA 17:13AA 672 2h 46m New York LGA 19:59 → ILM 22:01AA 4792 · flown by Republic 8h 33m 97% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON