Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 454 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 454 DFW 08:15 → JFK 12:59 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 578 DFW 16:13 → JFK 21:00 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 454 Delta Flight history →	DFW 08:15	JFK 12:59	9%	3%	1.7%	90%
AA 1248 American Flight history →	DFW 17:39	JFK 22:22	22%	7%	0.9%	64%
AA 1766 American Flight history →	DFW 09:50	JFK 14:34	23%	7%	1.5%	75%
AA 481 American Flight history →	DFW 18:31	JFK 23:11	25%	8%	0.9%	50%
AA 1058 American	DFW 13:13	JFK 18:01	26%	9%	1.1%	no record
AA 578 American Flight history →	DFW 16:13	JFK 21:00	27%	11%	1.0%	57%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	DFW 05:02 → CLT 08:37AA 1091	49m Charlotte	CLT 09:26 → JFK 11:21AA 822	5h 19m	84%	70%
Delta Details →	DFW 13:24 → DTW 17:10DL 735	48m Detroit	DTW 17:58 → JFK 19:41DL 1316	5h 17m	79%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON