Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: F9 1649 at 06:26 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–24%.

Safest bet that day F9 1649 DFW 06:26 → LAS 07:31 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 884 DFW 17:50 → LAS 18:42 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 1649 Frontier	DFW 06:26	LAS 07:31	10%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 1969 American Flight history →	DFW 07:00	LAS 07:51	10%	3%	0.8%	83%
AA 1550 American	DFW 08:54	LAS 09:54	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
F9 1961 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 22:50	LAS 23:53	12%	5%	0.9%	78%
F9 1051 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 12:02	LAS 13:00	14%	5%	0.8%	86%
AA 1482 American Flight history →	DFW 10:42	LAS 11:44	15%	4%	0.8%	78%
AA 1494 American Flight history →	DFW 09:42	LAS 10:43	15%	4%	0.8%	71%
AA 777 American Flight history →	DFW 12:18	LAS 13:06	20%	6%	0.8%	75%
AA 1573 American	DFW 15:20	LAS 16:25	21%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 2371 American Flight history →	DFW 21:29	LAS 22:30	21%	6%	0.9%	41%
AA 2864 American Flight history →	DFW 16:58	LAS 17:48	23%	8%	0.8%	61%
AA 2376 American Flight history →	DFW 13:40	LAS 14:28	23%	8%	0.8%	54%
AA 1771 American Flight history →	DFW 19:22	LAS 20:11	24%	8%	0.9%	59%
AA 884 American Flight history →	DFW 17:50	LAS 18:42	24%	8%	0.9%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON