Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 439 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 439 DFW 07:35 → LAX 08:45 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1504 DFW 16:31 → LAX 17:49 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 439 Delta Flight history →	DFW 07:35	LAX 08:45	7%	2%	0.7%	92%
AA 3303 American	DFW 06:32	LAX 07:52	8%	3%	0.9%	no record
DL 521 Delta Flight history →	DFW 16:00	LAX 17:23	9%	3%	0.7%	88%
AA 3317 American Flight history →	DFW 07:17	LAX 08:37	10%	3%	0.9%	85%
F9 4963 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 13:59	LAX 15:33	11%	4%	0.8%	76%
AA 3273 American Flight history →	DFW 09:32	LAX 10:54	11%	3%	0.8%	69%
AA 1996 American Flight history →	DFW 08:35	LAX 09:49	12%	3%	0.9%	83%
AA 442 American Flight history →	DFW 11:31	LAX 12:57	12%	4%	0.9%	75%
F9 3211 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 22:09	LAX 23:42	13%	4%	0.8%	77%
AA 1275 American	DFW 13:12	LAX 14:30	15%	4%	1.0%	no record
AA 3181 American	DFW 12:31	LAX 13:48	15%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 1669 American Flight history →	DFW 15:16	LAX 16:42	18%	7%	0.9%	52%
AA 2125 American	DFW 17:35	LAX 19:01	20%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 2043 American	DFW 18:31	LAX 19:58	20%	6%	1.1%	no record
AA 2038 American	DFW 21:28	LAX 22:54	20%	5%	1.1%	no record
AA 1504 American Flight history →	DFW 16:31	LAX 17:49	21%	7%	0.9%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON