Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2925 at 05:54 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–44%.

Safest bet that day AA 2925 DFW 05:54 → LGA 10:19 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest AA 610 DFW 16:54 → LGA 21:29 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2925 American Flight history →	DFW 05:54	LGA 10:19	11%	3%	1.9%	72%
DL 551 Delta Flight history →	DFW 07:00	LGA 11:29	12%	3%	1.6%	86%
AA 1609 American Flight history →	DFW 07:40	LGA 12:13	19%	5%	2.5%	83%
AA 1056 American Flight history →	DFW 08:25	LGA 13:00	21%	7%	2.3%	75%
DL 873 Delta Flight history →	DFW 10:35	LGA 15:10	23%	11%	1.4%	76%
DL 846 Delta Flight history →	DFW 18:59	LGA 23:33	29%	8%	2.1%	59%
AA 2922 American Flight history →	DFW 10:47	LGA 15:30	29%	11%	1.9%	69%
AA 2178 American	DFW 09:33	LGA 14:16	31%	10%	2.1%	no record
AA 1375 American	DFW 18:54	LGA 23:37	31%	9%	2.0%	no record
DL 856 Delta Flight history →	DFW 13:15	LGA 17:53	32%	12%	1.8%	64%
DL 869 Delta Flight history →	DFW 16:10	LGA 20:51	32%	12%	1.5%	69%
AA 672 American Flight history →	DFW 12:28	LGA 17:13	34%	15%	2.0%	59%
AA 2327 American Flight history →	DFW 11:38	LGA 16:23	35%	13%	1.7%	38%
AA 2570 American Flight history →	DFW 17:57	LGA 22:40	37%	12%	2.0%	64%
AA 1806 American	DFW 14:00	LGA 18:42	38%	16%	2.1%	no record
F9 3424 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 15:14	LGA 20:02	41%	19%	2.9%	61%
AA 2434 American	DFW 14:45	LGA 19:27	41%	16%	2.1%	no record
AA 2513 American Flight history →	DFW 16:49	LGA 21:29	43%	15%	2.3%	56%
AA 610 American Flight history →	DFW 16:54	LGA 21:29	44%	15%	2.3%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON