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Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3850 DFW 07:19 → LIT 08:32 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest OH 5615 DFW 14:03 → LIT 15:28 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AA 3850 American flown by Envoy Flight history → DFW 07:19 LIT 08:32 9% 2% 0.7% 89%
AA 3898 American flown by Envoy Flight history → DFW 11:35 LIT 12:59 10% 2% 0.7% 82%
AA 4309 American flown by Envoy Flight history → DFW 15:52 LIT 17:20 11% 3% 0.7% 77%
MQ 3505 Envoy DFW 17:05 LIT 18:34 13% 3% 0.7% no record
OH 5599 PSA DFW 09:42 LIT 11:08 14% 6% 1.0% no record
MQ 3519 Envoy DFW 19:02 LIT 20:26 14% 3% 0.8% no record
AA 4079 American flown by Envoy Flight history → DFW 21:11 LIT 22:35 14% 2% 0.8% 77%
OH 5615 PSA DFW 14:03 LIT 15:28 16% 7% 1.1% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON