Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: MQ 3522 at 12:05 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–26%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3522 DFW 12:05 → MCI 13:54 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2267 DFW 20:19 → MCI 21:57 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3522 Envoy	DFW 12:05	MCI 13:54	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2430 American	DFW 07:20	MCI 09:10	11%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 3331 American Flight history →	DFW 09:04	MCI 10:52	15%	3%	0.8%	70%
AA 1376 American Flight history →	DFW 11:22	MCI 13:14	17%	4%	0.8%	83%
AA 1036 American Flight history →	DFW 22:44	MCI 00:23	17%	6%	0.9%	53%
AA 3030 American Flight history →	DFW 14:52	MCI 16:37	20%	7%	0.8%	59%
AA 595 American	DFW 20:36	MCI 22:25	23%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 2267 American Flight history →	DFW 20:19	MCI 21:57	26%	7%	0.9%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON