Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2119 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 2119 DFW 07:05 → MCO 10:49 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest AA 2974 DFW 17:18 → MCO 21:10 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2119 American Flight history →	DFW 07:05	MCO 10:49	10%	3%	0.8%	78%
F9 4018 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 09:17	MCO 13:10	12%	4%	0.9%	76%
AA 2136 American Flight history →	DFW 08:14	MCO 11:59	13%	4%	0.8%	83%
F9 4192 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 21:51	MCO 01:46	15%	6%	0.9%	79%
AA 2750 American Flight history →	DFW 09:32	MCO 13:23	15%	4%	0.8%	82%
AA 2151 American	DFW 11:03	MCO 14:49	16%	5%	0.8%	no record
F9 1952 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 13:34	MCO 17:29	16%	6%	1.1%	73%
AA 1615 American	DFW 12:15	MCO 16:23	17%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 1692 American	DFW 13:24	MCO 17:09	22%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 2791 American Flight history →	DFW 16:33	MCO 20:25	22%	8%	0.9%	44%
AA 1336 American Flight history →	DFW 19:18	MCO 23:14	23%	8%	1.0%	52%
AA 2974 American Flight history →	DFW 17:18	MCO 21:10	23%	8%	1.0%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON