tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AA 2469 at 18:48, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2469 American Flight history → DFW 18:48 MDT 22:59 28% 9% 0.7% 54%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Harrisburg on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Harrisburg is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 12:23 → MDT 14:25DL 1354 8h 05m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 15:41 → MDT 17:37DL 2857 6h 31m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696 2h 30m Charlotte CLT 18:06 → MDT 19:46AA 6073 · flown by Piedmont 6h 51m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → DFW 11:32 → ORD 14:02AA 1285 1h 58m Chicago ORD 16:00 → MDT 19:05AA 3243 6h 33m 96% 78%
UnitedDetails → DFW 10:35 → ORD 13:05UA 1634 1h 02m Chicago ORD 14:07 → MDT 17:02UA 533 5h 27m 92% 77%
AmericanDetails → DFW 13:48 → BOS 18:17AA 1401 2h 13m Boston BOS 20:30 → MDT 22:10AA 4715 · flown by Republic 7h 22m 92% 77%
AmericanDetails → DFW 13:10 → ORD 15:51AA 2988 3h 13m Chicago ORD 19:04 → MDT 22:20AA 2400 8h 10m 97% 76%
UnitedDetails → DFW 14:15 → ORD 16:57UA 2160 2h 25m Chicago ORD 19:22 → MDT 22:09UA 1719 6h 54m 95% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DFW 14:44 → BOS 19:43AA 2306 47m Boston BOS 20:30 → MDT 22:10AA 4715 · flown by Republic 6h 26m 68% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON