Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 3189 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 3189 DFW 05:00 → MIA 08:55 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 942 DFW 15:42 → MIA 19:46 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3189 American Flight history →	DFW 05:00	MIA 08:55	8%	2%	0.9%	84%
AA 3290 American Flight history →	DFW 07:10	MIA 11:11	15%	3%	0.9%	82%
AA 1219 American	DFW 09:04	MIA 13:09	18%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 1454 American	DFW 10:28	MIA 14:33	19%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 2461 American	DFW 12:48	MIA 16:53	24%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 2090 American Flight history →	DFW 20:05	MIA 00:08	25%	9%	1.4%	56%
AA 2050 American Flight history →	DFW 18:02	MIA 22:03	27%	8%	1.4%	63%
F9 2676 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 18:00	MIA 22:02	27%	12%	1.5%	70%
AA 2206 American Flight history →	DFW 18:10	MIA 22:05	29%	9%	1.4%	56%
AA 3308 American Flight history →	DFW 16:30	MIA 20:35	31%	9%	1.5%	56%
AA 1167 American Flight history →	DFW 14:25	MIA 18:24	31%	8%	1.0%	46%
AA 942 American	DFW 15:42	MIA 19:46	31%	8%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON