tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1141 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 1141 American DFW 08:20 MSN 10:45 18% 5% 0.6% no record
AA 1660 American DFW 16:44 MSN 19:22 30% 8% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → DFW 08:24 → ORD 10:57AA 328 2h 44m Chicago ORD 13:41 → MSN 14:41AA 4038 · flown by Envoy 6h 17m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → DFW 11:19 → DTW 15:02DL 2746 1h 55m Detroit DTW 16:57 → MSN 17:20DL 5245 · flown by Endeavor 6h 01m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839 1h 22m Atlanta ATL 14:47 → MSN 15:51DL 2599 5h 45m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → DFW 11:16 → MSP 13:44DL 2972 3h 18m Minneapolis MSP 17:02 → MSN 18:14DL 5331 · flown by Endeavor 6h 58m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → DFW 16:46 → ORD 19:34AA 1290 3h 25m Chicago ORD 22:59 → MSN 23:59AA 4045 · flown by Envoy 7h 13m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → DFW 11:32 → ORD 14:02AA 1285 3h 20m Chicago ORD 17:22 → MSN 18:44AA 3953 · flown by Envoy 7h 12m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → DFW 05:47 → ORD 08:14AA 2999 3h 24m Chicago ORD 11:38 → MSN 12:44AA 6256 · flown by SkyWest 6h 57m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401 46m Atlanta ATL 09:20 → MSN 10:22DL 2681 5h 02m 94% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON